Cyber threats in 2024 – is it time to start worrying about quantum computers?

The security risks and benefits of artificial intelligence (AI) has had a major impact when making predictions within cybersecurity. The launch of ChatGPT in November 2022 shed light on generative AI while raising awareness of how it affects our security. The question is, is the use of quantum computers about to take a similar path?

One of the most widely touted benefits of quantum computers and quantum computing is a super-fast computational process that will support everything from particle physics research to better weather forecasting, traffic optimization, financial modeling, and cybersecuritySweden is well ahead in the field, including through the activities carried out at Wallenberg Center for Quantum Technology, WACQT.

Threats to cryptographic standards

The technology will also make it easier for cybercriminals to break encryption. Because quantum computers can solve mathematical problems that traditional computers cannot, such as factoring large prime numbers, they are often highlighted as a threat to current cryptographic systems.

In November 2022, the US government introduced the Quantum Computing Cybersecurity Awareness Act. If governments are preparing, the question is whether more should do so as well?

Barracuda Networks has asked some of its security experts to comment on the future and the question of whether businesses and the cybersecurity industry should focus more on the use of quantum computers:

Sheila Hara, Senior Director, Product Management, Email Protection:

Although quantum computers do not pose an immediate threat to current security measures, it is important to be proactive and prepare for a future where quantum capabilities could challenge existing cryptographic protections. Quantum computers have the theoretical ability to break widely used encryption algorithms such as RSA and ECC through a process known as Shor’s algorithm. This means that sensitive data encrypted with these algorithms could potentially be decrypted by a quantum computer. Confidential information, including personal data, financial transactions, and sensitive communications, could be at risk if encryption methods are compromised by quantum computers. The transition from current cryptographic standards to quantum-resistant standards will take time and require careful planning. Therefore, companies and organizations must start considering this transition to secure their data well into the future.

Stephan Schachinger, Senior Product Manager, IoT:

Those who believe they have done everything they can to protect themselves from current threats should be concerned about quantum computing, but for the vast majority of organizations, there are other security challenges to prioritize. Currently, the use of quantum computing is very limited and it is definitely not a mainstream technology. But we should keep the issue in mind because one day the situation will change.

Stefan van der Wal, Consulting Solutions Architect, Application Security, EMEA:

As is often the case with security issues, this will be resolved when it is already too late. It is good to think about a corporate strategy for when quantum technology arrives, especially since encryption will largely become obsolete as the field matures.

Rohit Aradhya, VP, Managing Director, Engineering:

In the coming years, quantum computing is an imminent threat. It is expected that quantum computing will help break asymmetric encryption solutions that base their security on integer factorization or discrete logarithms. However, it is still a few years before quantum resources can be used to impact enterprise security on a large scale. In addition, large-scale research and efforts are underway to make security products and solutions able to handle threats based on quantum computing. We believe that this is something to watch out for in the fairly near future, but probably not in 2024.