Time to think quantum-secure – before all encryption stops working

Once quantum computers become a reality, our current encryption methods could go up in smoke. The question is not if – but when. It is already time to start preparing today, says Richard Ford at Integrity360.

There's a lot of talk about quantum computers right now – but they're no longer science fiction. Within ten years, they could start breaking today's encryption, and this has security experts talking about Q-Day: the day when quantum technology makes current protective barriers unusable.

Several researchers believe that it can happen already at the end of the 2020s. And while it may sound far away, preparations should already be in full swing. Businesses that start acting now will be much stronger when the day comes.

The first cracks in the encryption are starting to appear

As early as 2024, researchers in China attracted attention when they succeeded crack a 22-bit RSA encryption – the same type of algorithm used to secure most of today's internet traffic. The result was limited in itself, but demonstrated that quantum technology works in practice and that computing power is increasing rapidly.

Once Q-Day occurs, much of today's encryption is at risk of becoming obsolete overnight. This could have far-reaching consequences for data security in everything from banking and government systems to cloud services and industrial networks.

The background is that today's encryption methods are based on mathematical problems that are extremely difficult for classical computers to solve, such as factoring very large numbers. Quantum computers, on the other hand, work in a completely different way. They can handle multiple states simultaneously and perform calculations with a speed and complexity that was previously impossible.

This means that they the future will be able to crack the algorithms that today form the very foundation of our digital world.

The time to act is now.

The message from security experts is clear: smart businesses start their transformation now. Traditional encryption methods that have been secure for decades are soon at risk of becoming vulnerable.

The problem is that many systems are still based on the same old technology. According to analyses, the entire 83 percent of all server-based SSH protocols versions older than 2020. This is an example of how many businesses are lagging behind in their security thinking.  

To stay ahead, companies and governments need to start planning for quantum-resistant encryption now. Work to develop such solutions is well underway. The US standards institute NIST (National Institute of Standards and Technology) is leading the effort to develop standards for post-quantum encryption and has already completed three algorithms that are considered quantum-safe.

Organizations are now encouraged to gradually introduce these into their systems – not as a panic measure but as a natural part of their long-term security strategy.

Early movers have an advantage

We will see a new wave of innovation in cybersecurity. The demand for quantum-safe products and services is already growing, and those who are proactive will be better equipped to protect their data, while those who wait risk being left helpless when Q-Day strikes.

This applies to both those who build services and those who use them:

1. For developers and suppliers it's about reviewing how applications, infrastructure and data storage are designed. The systems need to be modular and flexible, so that encryption methods can be replaced without disrupting operations. A particular challenge is about data that is already encrypted. Will terabytes of information need to be decrypted and re-encrypted to ensure continued protection?
2. For customers and purchasers It's time to start asking your suppliers: How far along are they in their work on quantum-resistant solutions? Do they have a plan for migration? Microsoft started its own "Quantum Safe" initiative back in 2023, with the goal of making all of its services quantum-safe. They have the resources to do so – but it's far from certain that all other players will follow suit at the same pace.

Fragile but fast technology

At the same time, there are still major technical hurdles to overcome before quantum computers become commonplace. Qubits, the basic building blocks of quantum computers, are unstable and require a perfect environment to function. They exist in a state called superposition, where they can be both zero and one at the same time. For calculations to work, it is necessary to maintain quantum coherence, a very sensitive state that can be disrupted by small changes in temperature, electromagnetic fields, or even single particles.

In 2024, scientists succeeded in maintaining quantum coherence at room temperature for the first time—but only for 100 nanoseconds. This shows how far away quantum computers still are from becoming stable enough for large-scale use.

But developments are moving quickly. Research, investments and international collaborations have increased enormously rapidly, and there are plenty of experts who believe that Q-Day could come much sooner than expected.

Richard Ford, Chief Technology Officer at Integrity360